EUR/USD Forex Signal

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at 1.1277.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today.

Short Trade

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1325.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trades

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1225 or 1.1220.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the price was effectively held by both resistance and support nearby and consolidated around 1.1250. However, the short-term momentum was bullish again and the U.S. Dollar continued to be weak. The signs all pointed to higher prices today, so we were likely to get a test of the resistance again at 1.1277 which should be today’s pivotal point.

I was right about the test of 1.1277, however after rising and invalidating that level the price then fell sharply as the U.S. Dollar strengthened suddenly during yesterday’s New York session. The price then fell back but is still held up by the key support at 1.1225, so the recent bullishness is still technically intact. I am more confident seeing 1.1225 as today’s likely pivotal point, and if it holds, as it so far seems to be doing, we can expect that higher prices over the course of the day will be most likely. I would take a bullish bias today if we get a strong bullish rejection of 1.1225 but would want to be out before the ECB release.

There is nothing important due today concerning the USD. Regarding the EUR, there will be a release of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Statement and Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45pm London time, followed by the usual press conference 45 minutes later.